Which teams will be the biggest over and underachievers for the 2024-25 season?
Win totals are out for all 30 teams, and those gambling lines serve as a good proxy for expectations that fans should have.
Sometimes, these totals are unpredictable. The Grizzlies were by far the biggest underachievers last year, hitting their under by 18.5 games due largely to injury. Other times, the evidence is right there for those willing to adjust their expectations quickly. The Wolves, Thunder, Magic and Pacers were all teams led by young stars who showed promise at the end of their previous years. They all completely smashed their overs last season.
The last time I did this, I went 3-1. My best over bet, the Warriors, crashed and burned, but I correctly picked the Knicks as overachievers and the Spurs and Lakers as hitting their unders. Before I pat myself too hard on the back, two years ago I went 0-3. Follow this advice at your own risk, if the reasoning makes sense to you.
With that caveat, here are my favorite over and unders this year.