With the NBA season around the corner, now is the perfect time to lock in awards predictions.
Last season, I had a couple of easy hits on MVP and Rookie of the Year winners. I vastly overestimated the Warriors’ representation in awards, incorrectly picking Chris Paul and Steve Kerr for Sixth Man and Coach of the Year, respectively.
This season is going to prove even more challenging than last. The bar is higher than ever to win the league’s most prestigious awards.
Here are my picks for MVP, Sixth Man of the Year, DPOY and more.
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NBA award predictions 2024-25
Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Doncic has finished no worse than eighth in MVP voting in each of the last five seasons. He was the No. 3 finisher last season.
That voting occurred before the playoffs, where he was the MVP of the Western Conference Finals and unstoppable throughout the Mavs’ Finals run. He proved that no defense can contain him, beating every single scheme with averages of 28.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.1 assists during the playoffs.
Doncic has a great chance to repeat that success this upcoming season. The Mavericks should be better given their additions of Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes and Spencer Dinwiddie. Doncic has another year of chemistry with Kyrie Irving, and Dereck Lively II should continue to improve from a promising rookie campaign.
Better spacing around Doncic will make him even tougher to guard. Thompson will get the easiest 3s of his life, and teams can’t sag off a poor shooter like Derrick Jones Jr. anymore.
Doncic is entering his age-25 season and will be better than ever. Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo won their first MVPs at age 24. Jokic won his at 25. Doncic will end his career in that same realm as one of the top 25 players to ever play the game. His time is now.
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Zach Edey dunks on Walker Kessler in the Summer League.
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey, Grizzlies
This is not a good rookie class, and many of the top picks in this draft looked like they were a long way away from contributing during Summer League. Alex Sarr is a work in progress offensively to put it kindly, as is Zaccharie Risacher. Reed Sheppard could compete for the award but may not get the minutes needed to win given Houston’s depth at guard.
That leaves Edey winning the award by default. He’s going to play a lot — the Grizzlies don’t have much else behind him at center. He also has NBA-ready skills with his interior scoring and rebounding, and Memphis is a good place to disguise his weaknesses.
Edey isn’t going to be a great shooter or mobile defender, but Memphis has OK shooting in its starting lineup and a power forward in Jaren Jackson Jr. who can help mitigate those issues. Edey is going to be a screen-setting giant for Ja Morant, who should have nice pick-and-roll chemistry with him from Day One.
Edey isn’t going to be the best player in this class, but he might be the most productive rookie. This feels similar to Malcolm Brogdon’s win in a meh 2016 draft class. While some players ended up becoming way better than Brogdon, his age — like Edey, Brogdon played four years in college — and immediate contributions to a playoff team were enough to win it.
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Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Wembanyama finished runner-up to Gobert last season, and he didn’t even know opposing player tendencies for most of the year. With a full season of film and learning how NBA rotations work, he’s going to be much better.
That’s a scary thought given that Wembanyama led the league with 3.6 blocks per game last season. Players often pulled the ball back rather than challenging him, and he still got to that absurdly high number. He’s more than just a rim protector, too. His 8-foot wingspan allows him to grab for steals that no one else can, and he’s pretty good at moving his feet on the perimeter.
The biggest thing holding Wembanyama back last season was that his Spurs teammates were horrible defenders, dropping their team defense down to 21st in the league. That shouldn’t be the case this year. Chris Paul isn’t nearly what he once was, particularly one-on-one, but he is a smart positional defender who can still get steals and organize the defense. Harrison Barnes is likewise past his prime but still a massive upgrade defensively over the sieve that is Keldon Johnson. And rookie Stephon Castle is a gritty point-of-attack defender.
San Antonio should be at least in the top half of the league defensively this season. That will make it very tough to deny Wembanyama this award.
MORE: Victor Wembanyama’s DPOY potential in two blocks
Most Improved Player: RJ Barrett, Raptors
Barrett has been on a tear ever since being traded from the Knicks. He closed out the season for the Raptors by averaging 21.8 points per game and dramatically increasing his 3-point percentage, from 33.1 percent to 39.2 percent.
That may seem fluky, but Barrett continued that hot streak through the Olympics for Team Canada, averaging 19.8 points per game and hitting 43.8 percent of his 3s. The shooting improvement could be real.
Barrett’s improved scoring looks sustainable for a couple of reasons. First, he’s learned to lean into his strengths. He’s a bully driver at his best. When he puts his head down and tries to muscle through defenders, nobody is stopping him. Second, his new role in Toronto allows him to focus more on being a pure scorer. That is going to help him put up big stats in his first full year there.
Barrett has good passers around him in Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes who can further simplify his job. He just needs to finish plays, which he is great at. Not many people were paying attention to a bad Raptors team at the end of the year, but the evidence is right there. Barrett is poised for a huge year.
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RJ Barrett
Sixth Man of the Year: Buddy Hield, Warriors
Sixth Man voters usually pick the guy who guns the most off the bench. That is Hield in a nutshell. Steve Kerr loves Brandin Podziemski, and Stephen Curry is going to start. Hield should be in a bench role where he’s free to go off.
Hield did not find a good role with the Sixers last year, but he still shot fireballs when he was in. And as a member of the high-flying Pacers, he was dynamite on his 3s. He’s a high-volume shooter with a quick trigger, and he’s going to get even more looks than ever in a movement offense where he’s filling in for one of the greatest shooters in league history in Klay Thompson.
Hield has shown that he is capable of huge scoring outputs in the past. He averaged 20.7 points per game in nearby Sacramento earlier in his career. He’s also been a relative iron man, even playing in 84 games last season. The minutes should come to him, and he’s going to hit a lot of shots.
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Clutch Player of the Year: Nikola Jokic
There isn’t a better player to get the ball down the stretch than Jokic. He plays at his own speed and knows exactly what he’s doing at all times. He’s unstoppable one-on-one and will make the perfect pass when teams double-team him.
Jokic was one of the most clutch players last season by statistical measures. He didn’t get too much consideration for the award because the Nuggets were too good. Curry and DeMar DeRozan finished first and second in the award, respectively, because they played on more mediocre teams who faced closer games.
The Nuggets won’t have that problem this year. They lost a key starter in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and are counting too heavily on unproven young players like Christian Braun, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson. Russell Westbrook is another wildcard that could be difficult to incorporate.
Jokic is going to have to put these guys on his back, and he is going to win a ton of close games with heady defensive plays, his unstoppable floater and his Sombor Shuffle jump shot.
MORE: Nikola Jokic could lead the NBA in scoring if he wanted
Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Grizzlies
Jenkins finished runner-up for this award in 2022 but should still be considered a spicy pick for Coach of the Year in 2025. He’s reportedly on the hot seat, so he could be fired rather than winning this award if the Grizzlies disappoint.
I don’t think that will happen. Memphis was a 51-win team last time we saw it healthy. Injuries decimated almost everyone on the roster last season — the Grizzlies were forced into playing 33 guys. It was a minor miracle that they even won 27 games.
This Grizzlies team also has good reason to believe they will be better than that team from two years ago. They’ve added Marcus Smart, Zach Edey and GG Jackson, though Jackson will miss time at the start of the season with an injury. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. should all be better with more experience.
Most importantly, Jenkins is a brilliant coach who has shown previously that he can get the most out of this roster. He is one of the best X’s and O’s minds in the league. He draws up great stuff at the end of games, and he should have a talented roster now that can execute his vision.